Sunday, June 21, 2009

What will be the outcome?

Nobody knows for sure of course, but the number of demonstrators on the street can give Iranian demonstrators unfounded tactical optimism as I felt 20 years ago on Tian'anmen square. No matter how many million people are out on the street, and how determined they are to fight to the end, as the citizens of Beijing were back then, if the government wants to use real force, there will be completely unbalanced unsustainable fight. If it comes to using tanks and machine guns, the only chance will be somehow most of the troops are convinced that shooting or running over unarmed people is an order that can absolutely NOT be carried out.

After seeing Tian'anmen square, military personnel during many mass demonstrations in 1989 Eastern European countries like Romania felt that what they saw on TV a few months ago should not happen in their own country in any case. They'd rather shoot the dictator like in Romania. Maybe reminding everybody of the bloody and horrific street scenes of the Tian'anmen event will be helpful to prevent it from happen again, anywhere.

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